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Monday, 30 April 2012

ECB's LTRO I and LTRO II didn't work

Posted on 03:46 by Unknown
On Zerohedge, the article of the ECB deposit facility sparked my attention. Apparently, banks are depositing their money into the ECB at an alarming rate (Chart 1).

Since the crisis of 2008, this deposit facility had risen a lot (250 billion euro), but has only recently skyrocketed to more than 800 billion euro.

This deposit facility at the ECB is a macro-economic indicator of market tension residing at the European banks. It is seen as a "safe haven" during economic turmoil in Europe. The higher this ECB deposit facility rises, the more banks favour the safety of the ECB deposit over higher returns in the interbank market. It shows that banks aren't lending to each other and also shows that appetite for European government bonds is declining.

Even though banks borrowed 489 billion euro (LTRO I) and 529.5 billion euros (LTRO II) in loans (at 1% lending rate) from the ECB, a lot of that money just went back into the ECB deposit facility at 0.25%. This means that banks are actually opting to lose money due to fear of a eurozone break-up.

To read the full analysis on this matter go to: The European Central Bank's LTRO Isn't Working Out.
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Posted in deposit facility, ECB, gld, Gold, LTRO, silver, slv | No comments

Sunday, 29 April 2012

Velocity of MZM slowing down

Posted on 00:16 by Unknown
In one of my previous articles I monitored the velocity of MZM, to see if treasuries were likely to go up or down. The new numbers of velocity of MZM are out today at 1.434 (Q1 2012), down from 1.451 (Q4 2011). To see what this means for your portfolio, go to: Velocity of MZM going down.
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Posted in MZM, treasuries, treasury, US, velocity | No comments

Friday, 27 April 2012

Peter Schiff with Allan Meltzer at the Atlantic Economy Summit

Posted on 12:34 by Unknown

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Posted in Allan Meltzer, Atlantic Economy Summit, Peter Schiff | No comments

Zero Hour Debt: Updated Chart for March 2012

Posted on 09:58 by Unknown
On Zerohedge, I saw an update on the GDP to Debt growth ratio. This reminded me to update the Zero Hour Debt chart. So I added a few data points I got from these two sites:

GDP: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm 
Total Public Debt: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

Chart 1: Zero Hour Debt

Conclusion: we are still on the way to cross the zero hour debt line in 2014.

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Posted in Zero Hour Debt | No comments

Spain's unemployment is alarming

Posted on 09:04 by Unknown
Today in the news, Spain's unemployment came in at 24.4% (Chart 1), with youth unemployment at 50.5% in February 2012. At the same time Spain's credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's from A to BBB+.

Chart 1: Spain Unemployment
It's not looking well for Spain, the 5th largest country in Europe. Surprisingly, the bond market stayed flat after the downgrade of Spain (Chart 2).

Chart 2: Spain 10 Yr government bond yield

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Posted in bond yields, Spain unemployment | No comments

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

Will Europe Break Up?

Posted on 11:20 by Unknown
Lately, there have been more and more articles popping up about a Eurozone break-up. Let's objectively analyze if this concern is validated. To make it easier for me I'll consider the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) to be southern Europe.

The different aspects I will look into are the following:
  1. Unemployment Rate
  2. Bond Yields
  3. GDP
  4. Debt
  5. Inflation Rate
  6. Current Account
  7. Government Budget
To see my analysis, go to my article: Will Europe Break Up?
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Posted in Europe, PIIGS | No comments

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

Europe is in Recession

Posted on 09:53 by Unknown
If you haven't noticed yet, Europe is now again contracting. GDP has been negative since 2012 (Chart 1). And the PMI is also contracting, which means the negative GDP will become even more negative going forward.

Europe is going into a depression, and this time it's for real, just like in 2008.

Chart 1: Europe PMI and GDP
Meanwhile, nothing problematic has been reported in the United States. The PMI there is still above 50 (53.4). US GDP is still projected to grow in the future. But I suspect that America won't be immune to the European collapse.
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Posted in America, Europe, gdp, PMI | No comments

Sunday, 22 April 2012

Marc Faber And the Australian/Chinese Real Estate Market

Posted on 03:50 by Unknown
In this article I want to present the status of the real estate and commodity market in Asia, with its implications on the global economy.

On "The Money and Wealth Show", Marc Faber has been talking about movements in the real estate and commodity markets. He talks about similarities between the Great Depression and the current crisis.

Marc Faber notes: "Eventually the financial system will cease to exist." Suggesting we will at some point go to a barter system. This barter system has already showed up in Greece at this moment. He also mentions that Australia's housing market is in the process of deteriorating (Chart 1).

To see the whole analysis, go to: Marc Faber on the Australian/Chinese Real Estate Market.



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Posted in China, commodities, Great Depression, Housing, Marc Faber, Real estate | No comments

Thursday, 19 April 2012

Silver Institute Publishes Results for 2011

Posted on 13:01 by Unknown
The Silver Institute published its demand-supply results for silver during 2011. Notable is that we are contracting from 2010, but we are still much higher than we were in 2008.

Interestingly, industrial demand fell over the whole line, even investment demand. But demand for coins skyrocketed upwards with a 20% increase from the previous year 2010. You know who buys coins? Yes, the common Joe Six-pack. We are all aware of the coming collapse and people are preparing for it.

Chart 1: Silver Demand



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Posted in institute, silver | No comments

Silver Warehouse Stock CME At 10 year high, or is it?

Posted on 10:33 by Unknown
According to the CME, silver stocks at warehouses hit a 10 year high this week. This seems to be bad news for silver investors, but I will present a different picture on this. Brother John pointed out already that stockpiles are at record lows in one of his silver updates and I'll present a more detailed analysis about this in the following article: CME Silver Stocks at an all time high, or are they?.

From Zerohedge:

For those who aren’t familiar with the terminology, the registered category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to gold and silver bars against which COMEX warehouse receipts are outstanding. The COMEX publishes these stocks on a daily basis and they can be found here: Silver | Gold. The registered category is the total pool of gold and silver available at any time to meet delivery requirements under expiring futures contracts or to establish initial futures contract positions through a transaction called exchange-for-physicals (I’ll explain this another time). It is important to realize, however, that many parties holding COMEX gold and silver in registered form have no intention of making their holdings available for delivery. By this I mean that such parties are neither (1) holding a short futures position against the warehouse receipt nor (2) willing to sell their registered metal (warehouse receipts) to a party with a short futures position. Indeed, a substantial portion of those holding registered metal would have acquired the COMEX warehouse receipts by holding long futures positions for delivery. In other words, these registered stocks are held for investment and not for commercial purposes.

In comparison, the eligible category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to bullion held in the warehouses that meets the specifications of an acceptable COMEX bar (proper weight, size, purity and refiner) but does not have a COMEX warehouse receipt issued against it. For example, an investor might purchase several 1,000 oz. bars of silver from a dealer and then deliver the bars for allocated storage at a COMEX warehouse. This is a private arrangement and has nothing to do with the COMEX. Unless these bars are officially registered (the easiest way to do this is through the aforementioned exchange-for-physicals), they will remain in the eligible category until withdrawn from the warehouse by the investor. Thus, the appropriate way to treat eligible COMEX warehouse bullion stocks is that they represent metal that could potentially be registered at some point in the future but cannot presently be used to make delivery under a short futures contract.


Note that Zerohedge says: Eligible silver has NOTHING to do with COMEX!


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Posted in CME, correlation, silver, stock, warehouse | No comments

Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Silver Lease Rates Jump To One Year High (and then fall back to where they were previously)

Posted on 09:18 by Unknown
Recently, the long term silver (PSLV) (SLV) lease rates jumped to a one year high since May 2011 (Chart 1).

On 17 April 2012, the one year lease rate was 1.05%, the 6 month lease rate was 0.73%, the 3 month lease rate was 0.47% and the 1 month lease rate was -0.26%.

It is notable that the 1 month lease rate didn't increase as much as the longer term lease rates. Another interesting point is that the long term lease rates almost doubled in a very short period, indicating scarcity in silver metal liquidity.  According to the London Bullion Market Association’s over-the-counter guide published on its website: “Heavy forward selling activity or a decrease in the supply of liquidity will push down forward swap rates and lead to upward pressure on lease rates.” What happened today is very bullish for the silver price.


Chart 1: Silver Lease Rates
I already wrote about gold lease rates in this previous article, pointing out that high lease rates are an omen of easing price manipulation by bullion banks like J.P. Morgan and HSBC. When silver lease rates go up, it means that we can expect an increase in the silver price in the next few months.


It has to be said that silver lease rates are still below their all time high of 2% in 2008, but it's especially the sharpness of the increase that's notable.


The expiry date for the CME May silver options is 25 April 2011. Mostly, the price movements near options expiry dates are in declining mode just before the options expiry. This way call options are made worthless. After the expiry date, we could have a huge boost in silver price fueled by this increase in lease rates.


Edit:

Apparently it was a mistake from Kitco's chart. The real silver lease rates are given here:

Table 1: Real Silver lease Rates
Well, too good to be true...

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Posted in Lease rate, silver | No comments

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

David Morgan Lecture: Metals Conference 16 March 2011

Posted on 08:22 by Unknown
Enjoy this old video from 16 March 2011 by David Morgan. Maybe you'll learn something you didn't know yet.


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Posted in David Morgan, Lecture, silver | No comments

Capacity Utilization for March: 78.6%

Posted on 08:14 by Unknown
Capacity Utilization in March was 78.6% for the total industry, which is 0.1% lower than the previous month (Chart 1). I expected a bigger decline, but was surprised that it fell so little. Maybe there is hope that it will go up in the future, which is good for gold. To see my analysis on gold, go to my article: Capacity Utilization for March 2012.


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Posted in Capacity Utilization | No comments

Saturday, 14 April 2012

Marc Faber on the Financial Survival Network

Posted on 00:51 by Unknown
Let's listen to Marc Faber's view on the Western Economies. He advises us to finally think about what to do when there is a complete credit collapse. You need to buy real assets.


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Posted in Debt, Marc Faber | No comments

Friday, 13 April 2012

Banks And Their Exposure to the PIIGS

Posted on 12:18 by Unknown
In the news of today, Spain has been in the center spot of attention. Spanish bond yields have been rising quickly and financials have seen weakness in their share price. In this article I want to see which banks have the most exposure to Spain and to the PIIGS in general.

During the stress tests of July 2011 the exposure of 90 banks to the PIIGS countries' government debt was released by the European Banking Authority (EBA).

To find out which banks are exposed to the PIIGS and which banks to avoid, please go to my article here:
Analyzing bank exposure to the PIIGS
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Posted in Bank, Europe, Exposure, Greece, Italy, PIIGS, Portugal, Spain | No comments

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Employment Deteriorating for the PIIGS

Posted on 14:18 by Unknown
Since the crisis of 2008, the unemployment rate for the PIIGS has been increasing rapidly. As a consequence, lately investors are putting their hard earned money in more healthy countries like Switzerland and Germany.

Go HERE to read a more in depth analysis on this matter.

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Posted in Greece, Ireland, Italy, PIIGS, Portugal, Spain, Unemployment rate | No comments

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

U.S. Budget Deficit Worsens

Posted on 13:53 by Unknown
I previously dissected the U.S. deficit HERE. Citing that the U.S. budget deficit is increasing at enormous speeds.

Today, reported on Bloomberg, the U.S. budget deficit widened to almost 200 billion in March. Extrapolation brings us to more than 2 trillion in budget deficits in 2012 compared to 1.4 trillion in budget deficits in 2011.

That's a 40% increase in budget deficit year over year. Hyperinflation is on the horizon.

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/u-s-budget-deficit-widened-to-198-2-billion-in-march.html
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Posted in 2012, Budget Deficit, March, US | No comments

China Gold Imports from Hong Kong

Posted on 12:36 by Unknown
In December of last year there was a big concern that China would stop importing gold due to lack of demand. This was derived from the fact that gold imports from Hong Kong to China dropped 62% in December 2011. As a consequence, the gold price plunged from $US 1700/ounce to under $US 1600/ounce.

Lately though, the gold imports from Hong Kong to China have stabilized around 40 tonnes/month (Chart 1). This drop of 62% seems to be huge, but when we look at the long term chart the picture is entirely different.

Go HERE to read the entire article.


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Posted in China, Gold, Hong Kong, imports | No comments

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Copper VS. S&P

Posted on 11:12 by Unknown
Let's bring to mind the amazing correlation between the price of copper and the S&P. When copper rises, the S&P rises and vice versa.

Financials will always be vulnerable and could crash like in 2008, bringing down copper. But don't forget Ben Bernanke. I predict he will initiate QE3 when the stock market falls 10%.

Chart 1: Copper VS. S&P

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Posted in copper, correlation, Standard and Poor's | No comments

Monday, 9 April 2012

Sprott PSLV and PHYS premium fall to a record low

Posted on 08:49 by Unknown
Today we record the lowest premium for the Sprott physical silver and Sprott physical gold trust, indicating a disinterest in gold and silver.

The premium for PHYS fell to a record low of 2.33% (Chart 2). The premium for PSLV fell to a record low of 5.86% (Chart 1).

(and if nobody wants it, it's time to buy it)

Chart 1: PSLV Premium (%) (blue) VS Price (USD) (orange)


Chart 2: PHYS Premium (%) (blue) VS Price (USD) (orange)

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Posted in phys, premium, PSLV, Sprott | No comments

Marc Faber on the Alex Jones Channel

Posted on 03:31 by Unknown
Another status update on the economy with Marc Faber.






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Posted in Alex Jones, Marc Faber | No comments

Sunday, 8 April 2012

Silver Anomaly

Posted on 23:57 by Unknown
Interesting Silver Glitch. Probably nothing.

Silver Anomaly
Meanwhile we have the dream scenario of every gold bug.

Oil Down 1%
                        =>    Gold Mines Soar
Gold Up 1%
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Posted in Silver glitch | No comments

Copper Inventories Rising

Posted on 01:44 by Unknown
With the China PMI indicating a contraction in GDP growth (of which I talked about HERE), another sign has emerged of China slowing down.

The LME Copper Warehouse Stocks Level has started a trend change and is actually rising (Chart 1). This build in inventories is probably indicating a slowing down the economy. A part of this build is due to Chinese markets staying shut for a public holiday on Wednesday 4 April 2012: Qing Ming Festival (清明节). Shanghai reopened on Thursday.

To see my analysis on this trend change go to Copper Demand and the Importance of China.

Read More
Posted in copper, country, Demand, LME | No comments
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      • ECB's LTRO I and LTRO II didn't work
      • Velocity of MZM slowing down
      • Peter Schiff with Allan Meltzer at the Atlantic Ec...
      • Zero Hour Debt: Updated Chart for March 2012
      • Spain's unemployment is alarming
      • Will Europe Break Up?
      • Europe is in Recession
      • Marc Faber And the Australian/Chinese Real Estate ...
      • Silver Institute Publishes Results for 2011
      • Silver Warehouse Stock CME At 10 year high, or is it?
      • Silver Lease Rates Jump To One Year High (and then...
      • David Morgan Lecture: Metals Conference 16 March 2011
      • Capacity Utilization for March: 78.6%
      • Marc Faber on the Financial Survival Network
      • Banks And Their Exposure to the PIIGS
      • Employment Deteriorating for the PIIGS
      • U.S. Budget Deficit Worsens
      • China Gold Imports from Hong Kong
      • Copper VS. S&P
      • Sprott PSLV and PHYS premium fall to a record low
      • Marc Faber on the Alex Jones Channel
      • Silver Anomaly
      • Copper Inventories Rising
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