The Declining Trade Deficit: Not As Rosy As You Would Think

The trade deficit numbers are out for June 2013 and have been very positive. Due to an oil boom, the trade deficit shrank 22% from around $44 billion in January 2013 to $34 billion in June 2013.

As you can see on Chart 1, the decrease in deficit was due to an increase in exports (red chart) and a decrease in imports (blue chart). This looks very promising, but I want to show that not all is well if you look into the details.

Chart 1: Import Vs. Export

Let's look deeper into these import and export numbers. Chart 2 gives the breakdown of the export numbers. The largest segments are "machinery and transport equipment", "chemicals and related products" "mineral fuels and lubricants" and "re-exports".

Chart 2: Exports January 2013

Chart 3 gives the breakdown of the import numbers. The largest segments are 'machinery and transport equipment", "mineral fuels and lubricants", "miscellaneous manufactured articles".

Chart 3: Imports January 2013

From these numbers we can deduct that the oil industry is indeed a very important segment that will influence the import and export numbers.

If we then further look at how these numbers evolve in time from January 2013 till June 2013 we have charts 4 and 5.

Chart 4: Exports (billion USD)

Chart 5: Imports (billion USD)

When analyzing the trends on charts 4 and 5, there is one segment that is worth noting. We see that exports of petroleum products (which are incorporated in the segment "mineral fuels and lubricants") have been going up, while imports of the same have been going down. The reason for this can be found in the divergence of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil.

To continue reading this analysis: go here.

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Deficit to Outlay Ratio

This page is created to monitor the U.S. Deficit to Outlay Ratio.

It measures how much of the government spending (outlays), comes from borrowing of foreign money (deficit).

A deficit to outlay ratio above 40% indicates that there is a high probability of hyperinflation.

Today (2013) we have an unprecedented deficit to outlay ratio of 30%.

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U.S. Deficit Spikes

As December and January were pretty good months (no deficit), February 2013 marked a record deficit of $204 billion. The deficit to outlay ratio spiked to 60%, way over the hyperinflation ceiling of 40%.

If the U.S. keeps going at this rate, we will see $2 trillion dollars in deficit soon.

Chart 1: Deficit to Outlay Ratio

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No U.S. Deficit in December 2012

The U.S. has done a good job in the month of December 2012. Its outlays of $270 billion were fully absorbed by receipts of $270 billion which makes the December 2012 deficit zero (Chart 1).

I think most of this is due to the fact that the debt ceiling was reached in December, so the U.S. couldn't spend as much money as it could.

Chart 1: Deficit to Outlay Ratio U.S.

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James Turk: Why you should own gold

Interesting presentation from James Turk. What keeps me bullish is his Gold Money Index which still indicates that gold is way undervalued at this time.

Another item mentioned in the video (an item I've talked about many times) is the deficit to outlay ratio. The U.S. is spending money which is borrowed for 40% on average from foreigners.

The latest data on deficit to outlay ratio in August 2012 shows that we borrowed 52% from foreigners to spend on our U.S. programs (medicare, social security, defence, pensions, education...):

Chart 1: Deficit to Outlay Ratio

If we keep going this way, hyperinflation is a certainty.

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France's 7.2 billion euro tax is a non-event

France just raised taxes on the rich and is trying to get 7.2 billion euro in tax revenue in 2012 and 33 billion euro in 2013.

So what does this mean to the deficit of France? France's GDP is 2.56 trillion euro. France's debt is 90% of GDP. Its total debt is therefore 2.3 trillion euro.

What is 7.2 billion on 2.3 trillion euro? It's 0.3%. So it basically does nothing to the French debt.

You could argue that it is a first step to decrease the yearly deficit. But the deficit is currently 70 billion euro/annum. So we have a 10% decrease in the deficit, which is a non-event. It's like an obese person trying to lose weight by eating a smaller hamburger with less french fries. He is still gaining weight, but at a slower pace...

For 2013 it is estimated that France will have a 50% decrease in deficit, but France will still have a deficit.

And I believe France won't be able to wait till 2014 to decrease the deficit, because Europe would be in much worse shape than today.

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Analysis of Deficits to Outlay Spending Ratio

I already talked about how the U.S. budget deficit is skyrocketing in this article. Reason was that outlay spending has outpaced government tax revenues since 2008.

I decided to make another chart of this going to the early 1980's. As James Turk stated, when governments start to borrow more than 40% to fund their outlay spending, then we have come to a hyperinflationary scenario.

To see what this chart means, go to: the full version of this article.

Chart 1: Deficits (+)/Surplus (-) versus Outlay Spending Ratio

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