COFER Q3: Rush into USD, Fleeing Euro

The total foreign exchange holdings have grown 2% quarter over quarter to 10.8 trillion. Annualized it amounts to 8% per year (which matches the MZM increase of money supply as pointed out by Michael Pento). That also means that gold should go up 8% per year at least to match foreign exchange holdings.

Table 1: COFER Q3 2012

What's interesting to note is that people have dumped the euro ($1459 billion to $1451 billion) and bought the USD ($3613 billion to $3716 billion). The USD is still managing to preserve its reserve currency status after all. The euro did show a lot of weakness in Q3 of 2012.

Chart 1: EUR/USD

I wonder what Q4 will bring as the euro went up in terms of gold while eurobonds were increasing in value against US bonds. I also wonder what will happen next year when QE3 is going to be implemented. Will they flee the USD and the Japanese yen?

Chart 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Read More

Euro Selling Has Stopped

The new numbers of the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) have been released and it shows that the the world has stopped selling euros (Table 1). Claims in euros have increased from $US 1.413 trillion to $US 1.423 trillion, an increase of 0.7%. Claims in U.S. dollars have increased from $US 3.513 trillion to $US 3.548 trillion, an increase of 1%. Interestingly, the increase in U.S. dollar claims is flattening out as compared to previous quarters, indicating U.S. dollar weakness.

In the previous three quarters, the claims in euros had been going down ($US 1.472 in Q2 2011 to $US 1.438 in Q3 2011 to $US 1.413 in Q4 2011). But that decline has stopped for now. I believe this reversal means that it's time to start buying into the euro again in the short term.

Table 1: Currency Composition of FOREX Reserves

To read the full analysis, go HERE.

Read More