GDP revised lower

As I suspected here, declining PMI will always result in lower GDP forecasts and "unexpected" revisions downward.

GDP growth was going to be 2.4% on an annual rate, now it is only 1.8% in Q1 2013.

This also means that the Zero Hour Debt chart is on track to go to zero.

More weakness is coming ahead of us as interest rates and mortgage rates go up. 

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Correlation: S&P Revenues Vs. PMI

Dr. Ed Yardeni's blog is a pool full of critical information and one of them is a newly discovered correlation which I will add to my collection.

Apparently the PMI is a leading indicator for the S&P revenues, which also means the PMI is a leading indicator for the overall direction of the stock market. This is consistent with the correlation between the PMI and the GDP, which is correlated to the total stock market index on itself via the Warren Buffet Rule.

So if you want to know the direction of the earnings of the financials, just look at the PMI and you can predict the trend, which is certainly down after the miss in PMI reported the previous week.

Chart 1: S&P 500 Revenues Vs. PMI

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Manufacturing PMI goes into Recession/Depression Territory

Look at that => Blue Chart. 

Yes, we crossed below zero for the PMI. Do you really think GDP growth will still go up?

Three words: Not A Chance...

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U.S. GDP Growth Slowing Down, Sell Stocks

The Chicago PMI just went in contraction from 52.5 to 49.0. This confirms all the bad news we already had in the previous months.

I expect that with this lower PMI, the ISM manufacturing PMI composite index (NAPM) will go down too.

And with that drop, the GDP growth will most certainly drop too. I would be very cautious if you are still buying stocks, thinking it will go higher.

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GDP Vs. PMI

This page is created to monitor the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Vs. ISM Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). 

When the PMI declines (blue chart), the GDP growth rate (red chart) declines.

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GDP Growth to be Flat Going Forward

This chart says it all. We got a new data point and we see a sharp decline in PMI numbers. So I expect the red GDP curve to go down as well. Prepare yourself.

Chart 1: GDP Vs. PMI

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PMI numbers suggest correction in the U.S. stock market

We just got new PMI numbers for the U.S. and it isn't pretty. We dropped from 54 to 51. That also means that GDP will likely not grow. And that also means that the U.S. stock market is in for a correction.

Chart 1: PMI Vs. GDP

Because the Warren Buffett rule is, the stock market can't go much higher than the GNP. GNP is at 16.1 trillion, the total stock market index is at 16.3 trillion. This means: overvalued.

I say get out of U.S. stocks.

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PMI Suggesting Further Euro Strength

GDP growth in the U.S. was 0% the last quarter and that is consistent with the PMI going below 50 in the U.S. While the U.S. economy is deteriorating, the PMI in the eurozone is in a rising trend again and soon will catch up to the PMI of the U.S. Maybe we can even get a positive GDP growth in the eurozone at some point.

This trend is positive for the euro going forward. But we need to be aware that the ECB has some bullets left to devalue the euro soon...

Chart 1: PMI Eurozone Vs. PMI U.S.

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The Trend in Base Metals based on Capacity Utilization and China Manufacturing PMI

To forecast the trend in the price of base metals we have a lot of indicators to look at. Two of the most important indicators to look at in my perspective are capacity utilization and the China manufacturing PMI.

Previously, I noticed that capacity utilization for mining in the U.S. was improving in November 2012, with the rate growing to 91.1%. Though, the problem is that the U.S. isn't that important anymore when talking about commodities. For example, in 2012 the emerging markets account for 75% of global iron ore consumption (Chart 1), while Asia, South America and Oceania account for more than 70% of global iron ore production (Chart 2). The same trend can be found in gold and silver production/consumption.

Chart 1: Iron Ore Consumption by Continent

Chart 2: Iron Ore Production by Continent

It would be wrong to only look at the capacity utilization of the U.S. to draw any conclusions on the prospects in the commodity market. It's essential to include China, South America and Australia/Canada into the equation.

To read the analysis, go here.

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How Likely is QE3? 70% likely.

Ben Bernanke has been saving his ammo in the past months. Each time the fed meeting was held, markets were hoping for QE3, but they didn't receive any. This is evidence by the U.S. federal reserve balance sheet on Chart 1.

Chart 1: U.S. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Today, we have passed several months and we already see that the economy is starting to deteriorate. Not only in Europe and the emerging markets, but especially in the United States. In this article I will focus on the key macroeconomic data in the U.S.

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Europe is in Recession

If you haven't noticed yet, Europe is now again contracting. GDP has been negative since 2012 (Chart 1). And the PMI is also contracting, which means the negative GDP will become even more negative going forward.

Europe is going into a depression, and this time it's for real, just like in 2008.

Chart 1: Europe PMI and GDP

Meanwhile, nothing problematic has been reported in the United States. The PMI there is still above 50 (53.4). US GDP is still projected to grow in the future. But I suspect that America won't be immune to the European collapse.

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