New GDP Calculation taking effect

If you recall my article on the newly invented way of calculating GDP, well we are at that point now.Today, the new GDP numbers (including legal bills, art, music, theatre and imaginary pension funds) were in effect. Real GDP grew 1.7% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2013.As you can see, the old nominal GDP numbers (red chart) and the new nominal GDP numbers (green chart) are about 3% different from each other. Nominal GDPWith...

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COMEX stock touches new lows

And we have new lows this week. Total gold stock goes to 6989165 troy ounc...

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Single Family Housing Starts Vs. Unemployment Rate

One of the key metrics for the health in the housing market are the "privately owned housing starts". "Housing starts" are an economic indicator that reflect the number of privately owned new houses (technically housing units) on which construction has been started in a given period. Usually, a decline in the "housing starts" leads to the start of a recession. The "housing starts" are a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. Both...

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Correlation: Employment-Population Ratio Vs. Real GDP per Capita

I like statistics that can't be fudged by the government and this is one of them: The Civilian Employment-Population Ratio. This measure is one of the best to evaluate the labor market. Each time when this ratio declines, we enter a recession. So this is a very good gauge in predicting bad periods in the overall economy.A high ratio (above 70%) means that a lot of people are employed and this will result in a high GDP per capita. A low ratio (under...

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Copper goes into backwardation

As gold went into backwardation, now also copper starts going into backwardation.We should see some upside in copper following this move into backwardation. But as opposed to gold, backwardation in copper isn't a good sign for the copper price. Meaning, if we see too much backwardation in copper (red curve making a bottom), you should expect a top in the copper pri...

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COMEX less than 1 million ounces physical gold left

We're getting closer to the zero line...At this pace we will have the unthinkable "event" at the end of this mon...

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Consumer Price Index: The effect of a rise in oil prices

With crude oil going back over $106/barrel (which is a 20% increase from $90/barrel), let's see how the CPI would do.As you know, the consumer price index consists mostly of housing (42%), then second comes transportation (17%) and last comes food (15%).The crude oil is part of the transportation segment. One third of the transportation segment is motor fuel or 5% of the CPI.So if oil prices go up 20%, the CPI will only go up 20% x 5% = 1%. More...

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Red Alert: Gold Forward Rates Turn Negative

As I told before, the only parameter that is going to dictate gold lease rates, is the GOFO rate, because the Federal Reserve will always keep the fed funds rate at zero, which means the LIBOR rate will stay at zero. The GOFO rate though, is dependant on the demand and supply mechanics of gold. And today we have the first time that the GOFO rate actually turned negative, which is officially a backwardation in gold. Since the 2008 crisis hit...

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The True Jobs Numbers

Just a reminder to those who thought the jobs numbers on Friday were positive.See the blue line (and just recently also the grey lin...

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Federal Reserve: To Taper or not to Taper

There is all this talk about "tapering". Will the Federal Reserve taper or not taper, that's the question. To find the answer, we need to take a look at the U.S. national debt.This is really a weird sight, do we really have an actual debt ceiling? Aren't we going to raise the debt ceiling? U.S. public debt has been growing at almost $200 billion a month and has been staying flat just recently.Chart 1: U.S. Public DebtSince May 19, 2013, the debt...

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Registered gold at COMEX at all time lows

A 30% drop in registered gold at the Brink's vault and a 15% drop in registered gold at Scotia Mocatta marks a huge total drop of more than 200000 ounces of gold at the COMEX.We are on course for a total sell out in physical gold at the COMEX at the end of the summer. We also see this in the spiking gold lease rates and lower gold forward rates.It is going to be interesting. What happens when the blue line intersects with zero? Any predictio...

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China Gold Imports Edging Upwards in May 2013

The gold imports in May 2013 were a bit disappointing again, gross imports didn't budge much.But the net imports surged to 106 tonnes in May 2013, meaning that China kept all the imports from Hong Kong. The ratio of net imports to gross imports is 83%.But it's still a positive development for the gold market, net imports continue to trend high...

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Correlation: Mortgage Rates Vs. Mortgage Applications Vs. Pending Home Sales

Just discovered another correlation on Zero Hedge. If mortgage rates go up, lending becomes more difficult, so people stop applying for new mortgages. This means there is a negative correlation between mortgage rates and mortgage applications.When mortgage applications go down, not a lot of homes will be sold. This means that home sales will go down. As suggested by the following chart, there is a correlation here between mortgage applications and...

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Shanghai Gold Premium Hit Another Record High

Almost each day marks another record high in Shanghai gold premiums to London spot price. We have hit 3% premiums.They are really gobbling up the gold, that I can say.Chart 1: Shanghai Gold Prem...

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