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Monday, 15 July 2013

Correlation: Employment-Population Ratio Vs. Real GDP per Capita

Posted on 10:02 by Unknown
I like statistics that can't be fudged by the government and this is one of them: The Civilian Employment-Population Ratio. This measure is one of the best to evaluate the labor market. Each time when this ratio declines, we enter a recession. So this is a very good gauge in predicting bad periods in the overall economy.

A high ratio (above 70%) means that a lot of people are employed and this will result in a high GDP per capita. A low ratio (under 50%) is considered bad for GDP.


If we take a look at the percentage change per annum, we see that the trend for the employment-population ratio is down (blue chart). So the employment picture isn't improving and this translates into a declining real GDP per capita growth rate (red chart).


As Karl Denninger explains, the amount of employed people as a percentage of the population hasn't improved since 2008. So the economy hasn't recovered a lot.

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