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Monday, 12 August 2013

GLD trust gold inflow?

Posted on 08:44 by Unknown
Looks like the media is telling us that the GLD trust physical gold holdings are rising and giving a boost to the precious metals prices.

I don't believe it until I see it.

When I make the chart, I see that we are bottoming out (red chart), but by no means we are really seeing a pick up in GLD trust physical gold holdings yet. We will have to wait for a longer time frame to confirm this uptrend.

I need to admit that the red chart is bottoming out though. Maybe the selling of the GLD trust units has exhausted itself.

Chart 1: GLD Trust
As for silver, we really start to see an uptrend here:

Chart 2: SLV Trust
Conclusion:
Silver is the most undervalued of the two precious metals.
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Posted in gld, trust | No comments

Thursday, 8 August 2013

Peter Schiff: Stand-Up Comedian

Posted on 14:19 by Unknown
As I always said, Peter would be a perfect Stand-Up Comedian. And here we have it...


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Posted in comedy, Peter, Schiff, stand, up | No comments

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Gold Lease Rate Higher, Registered COMEX Gold Lower

Posted on 13:45 by Unknown
Just another update.

Gold Lease Rates are at an all time high again:
Chart 1: Gold Lease Rate

COMEX registered gold has once declined to even lower levels. J.P. Morgan unloaded its registered gold. Total registered gold at COMEX now stands at: 875713 troy ounces. We are nearing the bottom.

Chart 2: COMEX gold
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Posted in COMEX, Gold, Lease, rate, registered | No comments

The Declining Trade Deficit: Not As Rosy As You Would Think

Posted on 12:47 by Unknown
The trade deficit numbers are out for June 2013 and have been very positive. Due to an oil boom, the trade deficit shrank 22% from around $44 billion in January 2013 to $34 billion in June 2013.

As you can see on Chart 1, the decrease in deficit was due to an increase in exports (red chart) and a decrease in imports (blue chart). This looks very promising, but I want to show that not all is well if you look into the details.

Chart 1: Import Vs. Export
Let's look deeper into these import and export numbers. Chart 2 gives the breakdown of the export numbers. The largest segments are "machinery and transport equipment", "chemicals and related products" "mineral fuels and lubricants" and "re-exports".

Chart 2: Exports January 2013
Chart 3 gives the breakdown of the import numbers. The largest segments are 'machinery and transport equipment", "mineral fuels and lubricants", "miscellaneous manufactured articles".
Chart 3: Imports January 2013
From these numbers we can deduct that the oil industry is indeed a very important segment that will influence the import and export numbers.

If we then further look at how these numbers evolve in time from January 2013 till June 2013 we have charts 4 and 5.

Chart 4: Exports (billion USD)
Chart 5: Imports (billion USD)
When analyzing the trends on charts 4 and 5, there is one segment that is worth noting. We see that exports of petroleum products (which are incorporated in the segment "mineral fuels and lubricants") have been going up, while imports of the same have been going down. The reason for this can be found in the divergence of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil.

To continue reading this analysis: go here.
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Posted in arbitrage, boom, brent, crude, deficit, export, import, Mastercard, oil, rate, Savings, trade, Visa, WTI | No comments

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

China Gold Imports from Hong Kong: Steady in June 2013

Posted on 08:44 by Unknown
In June 2013, the gold imports from Hong Kong to China were essentially flat.
The summer isn't a good period for gold either, so this is pretty normal. But anyway, gross and net imports are still at an all time high, compared to history (see chart 2).

And what's also interesting is that the ratio between net imports and gross imports are at an all time high too: 89%. China wants to keep all its gold.



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Posted in China, Gold, hong, imports, kong | No comments

Friday, 2 August 2013

Tax Receipts Vs. Savings Rate

Posted on 23:55 by Unknown
Whenever the government raises taxes or when corporate profits rise, tax revenue will rise with it (blue chart).

But this has implications, if tax revenues rise, this will deplete the personal savings of the people. The red chart shows the personal savings rate (%). There is a negative correlation to be found here.


It shows us that higher tax revenues always lead to lower personal savings rates and vice versa. From this correlation we can deduct one thing. There is a limit to raising tax revenues. If the personal savings rate gets to 0%, there is no more margin to increase taxes.

At this moment the personal savings rate is 4.4% and is almost at a historic low. Contrast this to the savings rate of China, which is 50%. Also note that tax revenues have been declining as a percentage of GDP. This means that corporate earnings growth isn't keeping up with GDP growth at a constant rate of taxation.

To read more about this correlation go to this article.
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Posted in correlations, rate, receipt, Savings, tax | No comments

Gold Backwardation Explained By James Turk

Posted on 10:15 by Unknown
If you want to know what gold backwardation means, read this article of James Turk. Very interesting.

Let's say we have two currencies A (euro) and B (USD). Then the following is true:

- A's interest rate < B's interest rate
- A is in contango against B
- A's value rises going into the future
- Higher interest rates means a higher risk of debasement of the currency.


Now let's look at two other currencies A (USD) and B (gold):

- USD's interest rate < gold's interest rate (lease rate)
- USD is in contango against gold (or gold is in backwardation)
- USD's value rises going into the future (or gold's value declines going into the future = negative GOFO)
- Higher interest rates means a higher risk of debasement of the currency.

Now gold's interest rate is higher than the USD's interest rate. Which means gold has a higher risk of debasement than the USD. This is virtually impossible because gold cannot be debased.

Which means something has to give. This is a rare event and will mark a bottom in the gold price.
Read More
Posted in backwardation, Gold, James, Turk | No comments
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Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (243)
    • ▼  August (7)
      • GLD trust gold inflow?
      • Peter Schiff: Stand-Up Comedian
      • Gold Lease Rate Higher, Registered COMEX Gold Lower
      • The Declining Trade Deficit: Not As Rosy As You Wo...
      • China Gold Imports from Hong Kong: Steady in June ...
      • Tax Receipts Vs. Savings Rate
      • Gold Backwardation Explained By James Turk
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