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Monday, 30 April 2012

ECB's LTRO I and LTRO II didn't work

Posted on 03:46 by Unknown
On Zerohedge, the article of the ECB deposit facility sparked my attention. Apparently, banks are depositing their money into the ECB at an alarming rate (Chart 1).

Since the crisis of 2008, this deposit facility had risen a lot (250 billion euro), but has only recently skyrocketed to more than 800 billion euro.

This deposit facility at the ECB is a macro-economic indicator of market tension residing at the European banks. It is seen as a "safe haven" during economic turmoil in Europe. The higher this ECB deposit facility rises, the more banks favour the safety of the ECB deposit over higher returns in the interbank market. It shows that banks aren't lending to each other and also shows that appetite for European government bonds is declining.

Even though banks borrowed 489 billion euro (LTRO I) and 529.5 billion euros (LTRO II) in loans (at 1% lending rate) from the ECB, a lot of that money just went back into the ECB deposit facility at 0.25%. This means that banks are actually opting to lose money due to fear of a eurozone break-up.

To read the full analysis on this matter go to: The European Central Bank's LTRO Isn't Working Out.
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Posted in deposit facility, ECB, gld, Gold, LTRO, silver, slv | No comments

Sunday, 29 April 2012

Velocity of MZM slowing down

Posted on 00:16 by Unknown
In one of my previous articles I monitored the velocity of MZM, to see if treasuries were likely to go up or down. The new numbers of velocity of MZM are out today at 1.434 (Q1 2012), down from 1.451 (Q4 2011). To see what this means for your portfolio, go to: Velocity of MZM going down.
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Posted in MZM, treasuries, treasury, US, velocity | No comments

Friday, 27 April 2012

Peter Schiff with Allan Meltzer at the Atlantic Economy Summit

Posted on 12:34 by Unknown

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Posted in Allan Meltzer, Atlantic Economy Summit, Peter Schiff | No comments

Zero Hour Debt: Updated Chart for March 2012

Posted on 09:58 by Unknown
On Zerohedge, I saw an update on the GDP to Debt growth ratio. This reminded me to update the Zero Hour Debt chart. So I added a few data points I got from these two sites:

GDP: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm 
Total Public Debt: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

Chart 1: Zero Hour Debt

Conclusion: we are still on the way to cross the zero hour debt line in 2014.

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Posted in Zero Hour Debt | No comments

Spain's unemployment is alarming

Posted on 09:04 by Unknown
Today in the news, Spain's unemployment came in at 24.4% (Chart 1), with youth unemployment at 50.5% in February 2012. At the same time Spain's credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's from A to BBB+.

Chart 1: Spain Unemployment
It's not looking well for Spain, the 5th largest country in Europe. Surprisingly, the bond market stayed flat after the downgrade of Spain (Chart 2).

Chart 2: Spain 10 Yr government bond yield

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Posted in bond yields, Spain unemployment | No comments

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

Will Europe Break Up?

Posted on 11:20 by Unknown
Lately, there have been more and more articles popping up about a Eurozone break-up. Let's objectively analyze if this concern is validated. To make it easier for me I'll consider the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) to be southern Europe.

The different aspects I will look into are the following:
  1. Unemployment Rate
  2. Bond Yields
  3. GDP
  4. Debt
  5. Inflation Rate
  6. Current Account
  7. Government Budget
To see my analysis, go to my article: Will Europe Break Up?
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Posted in Europe, PIIGS | No comments

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

Europe is in Recession

Posted on 09:53 by Unknown
If you haven't noticed yet, Europe is now again contracting. GDP has been negative since 2012 (Chart 1). And the PMI is also contracting, which means the negative GDP will become even more negative going forward.

Europe is going into a depression, and this time it's for real, just like in 2008.

Chart 1: Europe PMI and GDP
Meanwhile, nothing problematic has been reported in the United States. The PMI there is still above 50 (53.4). US GDP is still projected to grow in the future. But I suspect that America won't be immune to the European collapse.
Read More
Posted in America, Europe, gdp, PMI | No comments
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