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Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Is Greece Bankrupt Yet?

Posted on 09:35 by Unknown
On 31 July 2012 Greece finance minister Christos Staikouras told on television that Greece is on the edge of bankruptcy. If no aid comes from the ECB, Greece won't be able to pay its ECB debt obligation on 20 August 2012. Greece has a repayment due of 3.8 billion euro.

Consecutive debt repayments and spending cuts in 2012 have reduced Greece's debt to GDP from 160% to  132% (Chart 1). This means Greece is going into the right direction concerning its debt.
Chart 1: Greece government debt to GDP

However, Greece depends entirely on the troika: European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB). On Monday 24 July 2012, they announced the 31.5 billion euro bailout money wouldn't be available yet to Greece until September 2012. One of the reasons is because of the IMF refusing to give more aid as Greece will not be able to fulfill its promise to cut debt to 120 percent of annual economic growth in euro terms by 2020.

This means that insolvency is coming near and could have arrived as early as September 2012.
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Posted in bankruptcy, Debt, Greece, minister | No comments

Sunday, 29 July 2012

Insider Trading Update: Yahoo, J.P. Morgan Chase, Hewlett Packard, Akamai Technologies, Sipef

Posted on 04:21 by Unknown
Today I present you notable bullish insider transactions for the last 13 weeks. Discussed companies are Yahoo, J.P. Morgan Chase, Hewlett Packard, Akamai Technologies, Sipef.

The analysis can be read here.
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Posted in Akamai Technologies, Hewlett Packard, insider trading, J.P. Morgan Chase, Sipef, Yahoo | No comments

Friday, 27 July 2012

'Free Irwin' Road Show

Posted on 15:21 by Unknown
I can't withold you from this free video of the Peter Schiff show. As you might have noticed, I'm a Peter Schiff fan. 


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Posted in Irwin, Peter, radio, Road, Schiff, Show | No comments

U.S. Second Quarter GDP Growth Slows Down

Posted on 09:34 by Unknown
Today the second quarter GDP numbers came out. Real GDP growth slowed down to 1.5% from 2% in the first quarter (Chart 1).

Chart 1: U.S. GDP Growth
This is a significant drop in GDP growth and is conform with the slowdown in the U.S. PMI of which I talked here. As the U.S. PMI went below 50 for the month of June 2012, we can expect a further contraction in GDP growth in the months ahead of us.  This bad news increases the odds of further quantitative easing from the federal reserve to prevent an entire collapse in GDP as we saw in 2008.

To see more about zero hour debt, read the analysis here.

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Posted in Debt, gdp, second quarter, U.S., US, Zero Hour | No comments

Thursday, 26 July 2012

Silver off to the races

Posted on 23:02 by Unknown
As I predicted before, silver is having a breakout these days. And the evidence is piling up. One of the evidences of a bullish scenario is the silver stock at the CME. 

As you can see on chart 1, the silver stock at the CME is declining, ever since Eric Sprott did his PSLV offering of $US 200 million on the market on 12 July 2012. I predict that registered silver will start to decline soon (blue dots).

Once the silver price breaks the $US 30/ounce level, it's off to the races.

Chart 1: Silver stock at CME
Although the CME numbers amount only to 140 million troy ounces (Chart 1) (30 million ounces held by dealers at COMEX), while the silver supply from miners is around 760 million ounces a year, the decline in silver stock at the CME can be a small secondary indicator of declining supply (or increasing demand) in the silver market.
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Posted in CME, Eric, PSLV, silver, Sprott, stock | No comments

Wednesday, 25 July 2012

How low can negative yields on Swiss bonds go?

Posted on 11:11 by Unknown
We have been seeing negative bond yields in Switzerland and Germany. Which is very odd if you ask me. The question begs to be asked: "How low can negative yields go?".

To give an answer to this you need to have an understanding of the price-yield curve of bonds. You can gain money if yields go lower (bond price rises), but you will lose money because you need to pay interest on the negative yield. So there should be an equilibrium point and as a scientist I very much want to find that equilibrium point.

There is a very nice online tool for the price-yield curve on this site: Wolfram: Price-Yield Bond Curve.

Inputs for this tool are:
1) Years to maturity (if you buy a new 2 year bond it has 2 years to maturity)
2) Annual Coupon payment (the amount of cash you get per annum)
3) Yield (the annual percentage cash you get on the principal)

I will analyze the 2 year Swiss government bonds in this article.

Chart 1: Swiss 2 year Government Bonds

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Posted in bonds, curve, Germany, Negative, Price, Switzerland, yield | No comments

Gold Price at Record Highs in Euro

Posted on 08:33 by Unknown
Just a little update to tell everyone that gold is likely to reach an all time high today and possibly break out in the next months.

Chart 1: Gold Chart in Euro

Read More
Posted in euro, Gold, Price | No comments
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      • GLD trust gold inflow?
      • Peter Schiff: Stand-Up Comedian
      • Gold Lease Rate Higher, Registered COMEX Gold Lower
      • The Declining Trade Deficit: Not As Rosy As You Wo...
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      • Gold Backwardation Explained By James Turk
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