J.P. Morgan Vault Doubles Registered Silver

I think this is very significant. J.P. Morgan's vault just recorded a doubling in registered silver coming from eligible silver.

You know what that means, allocation of silver, which means someone wants delivery. Open interest will start to come down with the decline in total silver stock.

Be prepared for the reversal in silver price.

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U.S. GDP Growth Slowing Down, Sell Stocks

The Chicago PMI just went in contraction from 52.5 to 49.0. This confirms all the bad news we already had in the previous months.

I expect that with this lower PMI, the ISM manufacturing PMI composite index (NAPM) will go down too.

And with that drop, the GDP growth will most certainly drop too. I would be very cautious if you are still buying stocks, thinking it will go higher.

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Bank Deposits Update

Remember the Cyprus debacle in March? We were worried about deposits declining.

In February, deposits declined in Cyprus, Ireland, Greece, Portugal. But they increased in Italy and Spain.

In March, we see the same happening again. So I don't see any significant changes. Maybe the Cyprus crisis was just a little drop in the sea.

Chart 1: Bank Deposits

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GDP Misses Expectations

The 2013 Q1 real GDP was weaker than expected. 2.5% year over year instead of 3.2%. With a miss in expectations, be prepared for lower stock markets as we are due for a correction. We are overvalued for sure.

But actually the number is pretty good. the GDP growth to debt growth ratio has inched up since the last release (Chart 1). Nominal GDP grew 1% from a quarter ago, while debt grew 2.4% in the same period.

Chart 1: Zero Hour Debt

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COMEX Gold's Alarming Plunge in Inventory

Today we see a quite alarming drop in the COMEX gold stock. Do you see how the total gold stock (green chart) is plunging? Do you see how the registered gold (blue chart) is disappearing?

I know the COMEX can't default, but we will see cash settlements for gold deliveries like never before. If we see the trend going further down at this rate, you won't get your physical gold, I can assure you that.

Silver open interest is still rising with higher stock. I don't expect a reversal yet in the silver price down trend, but I see signs of a topping out.

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Durable Goods Orders Vs. S&P

This page is created to monitor the Durable Goods Orders Vs. S&P.

The durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.

If we see a plunge in durable goods orders (blue chart), we know for sure that in the months to come we won't see a lot of activity in factories as orders decline. There will be less work and that will reflect itself in the stock market,  in particular the S&P (red chart).

The durable goods orders chart is the less volatile of the two and should be a good indicator for the S&P, which is more volatile.

In recent months we see the durable goods orders flatten out, which means the S&P will likely decline in the coming months.

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Is the gold there?

As the gold stock at the COMEX keeps dropping precipitously, we get more and more signs that the banks and warehouses don't have any gold or silver available for delivery. Junk silver premiums made a new high of 27% today. Chow Tai Fook in Hong Kong is out of gold bars. It's only a matter of time now, when this will become mainstream media.

Edit: On 24 april, registered gold hit a new low and total gold stock hit a new low at 8 million ounces. This drop is the largest one in years. Something is happening.

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